Trump’s US-Iran ceasefire deal is a costly return to prewar conditions – and resolving nuclear questions will run into the ‘indivisibility problem’

Shehbaz Sharif, the prime minister of Pakistan, which served as the key negotiator between the U.S. and Iran, announced on June 14, 2026, that the two sides had agreed on a deal to end the war. It will be officially signed on June 19 in Switzerland. President Donald Trump announced it on Truth Social as a triumph, claiming that the Strait of Hormuz is open for everyone, the U.S. blockade has been lifted, and the oil is flowing again. What Trump did not mention was Iran’s nuclear program and what happens to its enriched uranium stockpile, one of the main reasons cited for starting the war. The nuclear issue – along with core issues such as ballistic missiles and Iran’s proxies – has been deferred for 60 days. This raises two important questions: What was the war actually for? And what did the U.S. achieve? As an international and nuclear security expert, I believe the answer is nothing – and in the process the U.S. lost credibility as a negotiating partner. Why the nuclear question is the hardest The “rationalist theory of war,” as developed by political scientist James Fearon in 1995, identifies three problems that drive states to war…

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